Be Prepared for What's Coming - Part 2: Magazines and Ammunition
I am going to preface this article with a disclaimer: I do not believe that a ban on ammunition is coming, that one will be proposed following Joe Biden's likely win in the 2024 election, or that nearly any court would uphold blanket ammunition bans as being constitutional. There is no impending ammunition ban. There is, however, and impending shortage of both ammunition and standard capacity magazines. That is the topic of this article.
The truth about ammunition shortages in the 21st century is that they have been cyclical and have corresponded with federal elections. The first was in 2008 following the election of Barack Obama. I remember there being a major shortage of guns and ammunition for nine months following President Obama's election because people believed there would be a near immediate ban on firearms and ammunition. It turns out that Barack Obama was a political pragmatist: he remembered how the NRA was instrumental in the defeat of Al Gore in the 2000 election and wanted to be a two-term President. He was careful with his rhetoric on the gun issue and the shortages fizzled out rather quickly. Then came 2012, when Obama won re-election handily against Mitt Romney, and things were pretty quiet after the election. Then Sandy Hook happened. Magpul AR-15 magazines shot up to $99.00 each overnight. 9mm ammo shot up to $1.00 per round. Polymer AR-15 lowers went for $500.00 each. Obama promised a new assault weapons ban.
Of course, his words went nowhere. Republicans still controlled the House. They knew that NRA members have exceptionally long memories and that any treason would result in a primary challenge. The post-Sandy Hook gun bans went nowhere despite the best efforts of Barack Obama and, most notably, Dianne Feinstein (may she forever burn in Hell). It was dead by May of 2013. But the ammunition and magazine shortage lasted another year for a total of around 18 months before there was a return to normalcy. With Trump's victory in the 2016 election there was no shortage of guns, ammunition, or magazines. Then came the double-whammy of the Bolognavirus pandemic and the 2020 election (which everyone knew Joe Biden was almost certain to win). The shortage really began in a noticeable manner in the Spring of 2020. To be fair the so-called "pandemic" lasted into 2021, but it was not until 2023 that we started seeing ammunition return to store shelves. Reloading components still remain in short supply (most notably, primers).
Joe Biden is almost guaranteed re-election in 2024 and there is more than a 90% chance that Democrats will win the trifecta of the House, Senate, and Presidency. This election could mean an end to the Second Amendment as we know it and could even lead to a second war between the states regardless of who wins. When Biden is declared the winner on November 5, there will almost certainly be a run on guns, ammunition, and reloading components the following day. Prices will skyrocket. But you don't need to be caught unprepared. Here is what I recommend for those who wish to be able to "sit out" the upcoming shortage and avoid paying premiums to the hoarders and gougers:
Stockpile Ammunition: In addition to your stockpile of SHTF ammunition, you should have enough ammunition for all of the hunting and training that you will want to do for the next three years. If the Second Amendment survives the 2024 election, it is likely that the post-election ammunition shortage will not last nearly as long as the Bolognavirus shortage (probably closer to 18 months than three years). The good new is that ammunition doesn't have an expiration date. I typically take at least one pistol (100 rounds), one carbine (150 rounds), and one precision rifle (80) rounds class every month. That means I need 3,600 rounds of 9mm, 5,400 rounds between 5.56mm, 300 BLK, and 7.62x39, and 2,880 rounds between 6.5 Grendel, 308 Winchester, and 300 Winchester Magnum. I hunt lots of ducks every year so I probably need a minimum of nine cases of 12 gauge steel shot, plus enough lead shot to get some practice in. I am also a deer hunter so, for the rifle I will be hunting with (usually 6.5 Grendel or 308 Winchester), I will want a minimum of six 20rd boxes of high quality hunting ammunition (that gives me the flexibility to kill hogs as well). I only kill about one turkey a year so I figure one box of turkey shells per season to account for pattern confirmation and any misses. For most people, that's a heck of a lot of ammo to have in addition to your SHTF stockpile. It's a considerable investment, but far better than the alternative of not training, not hunting, and not being prepared.
Stockpile Standard Capacity Magazines: For the purpose of this article, a standard capacity magazine is any magazine capable of holding more than ten rounds of ammunition. The problem is that magazines for certain platforms can be very expensive. This makes it important to focus your priorities. My personal recommendation is to stockpile the least common and most expensive magazines first. For example, if you own a Glock 17 or a Glock 19, there is no shortage of magazines available at this point. Pre-ban high capacity magazines may still be available for some time after a ban. This will not necessarily be true for those shooting a Sig P365, a 2011 series pistol, or other weapon with a proprietary magazine. Stock up on those magazines first because, after a ban, they will be in the shortest supply. Since the handgun is the primary weapon system for a civilian, I recommend startingw with handgun magazines and purchasing a minimum of ten standard capacity magazines for every firearm you own. Lets say I owned three handguns: a 2011, a Sig P365, and a Glock 17. The 2011 is a competition weapon and the P365 is a carry gun. I would start my stockpiling for my P365 because it is my primary weapon system. I would then stockpile for the 2011 because those are rarer magazines. After that, I would make sure I am well stocked for my Glock 17 if I am not already. For those wondering, the Magpul magazines for these weapons work just fine but do not drop as freely as factory magazines. So, I use magpul magazines for training and carry factory Glock magazines.
If your lineup of weapons also includes a tactical carbine - and it should - this is your next priority. Since the AR-15 is such a common target of bans, many people wonder why I don't prioritize AR or AK magazines over pistol magazines. The reason is simple: I remember the 10 years of tyranny from 1994 to 2004. Throughout the first ban, it was relatively easy to obtain 20 and 30 round pre-ban AR-15 magazines. I still have my pre-1994 Israeli Orlite 30 round magazines that I purchased during the 10 years of tyranny. They still work and I still train with them. I also have a good quantity of USGI magazines from that period - far less common these days given the popularity of Magpul - but still great magazines. In short, the market is so flooded with AR-15 magazines that as long as you have two or three for now there is no stockpiling emergency (yet). If you run a PCC like a FN PS90, CZ Scorpion, or other platform that takes proprietary magazines, make sure that you have plenty. For a PCC, I recommend the same number as I do for pistol (minimum of 10). For the AR and AK platforms, magazines are cheap and in good supply. I do not encourage wasting your money on drums or anything more than 30 rounds because of the extra length and weight. Have twenty magazines for your AR or AK. If you own an AR in an oddball caliber like 7.62x39, 6.5 Grendel, 6mm ARC, etc - those are definately magazines you will want to have an abundance of now while you still can (I will say I use 6.5 as a DMR or hunting rifle so I am fine with a 10 round magazine for that). On the same note, remember that AR-10 weapons are far less common than AR-15s. You will absolutely want as many 20 or 30 round magazines for your AR-10 as you can afford as they will be in far shorter supply than AR and AK magazines. In fact, I would buy those before I bought PCC or tactical carbine magazines. A semi-automatic rifle capable of delivering long range fire is a huge force multiplier.
Your lowest priority is your shotgun. Obviously, if you have a magazine fed semi-automatic shotgun, you will want to have plenty of magazines. If your shotgun has a tubular magazine, you will want to have the extension tube. However, I say that this is a lower priority because magazine limits have never been applicable to pump action shotguns. In my experience, a pump action can be operated almost as fast as an autoloader when it comes to shotguns so there is less drawback to being limited in that regard. The people who really need to be sure they have their extended magazine tube are snow goose hunters.
Stockpile Select Gun Parts: This is your second lowest priority, but it is still a priority. The good news here is that it takes a lot of time for modern firearm parts to wear down. The first thing you want to do is check barrels on your precision rifles, especially if your precision rifle is an AR-15 or AR-10 platform. How many rounds do you have down the tube? Will it need to be replaced if you shoot it in the next year with the same frequency you otherwise would? If so, better to replace that barrel now and confirm your DOPE while ammunition is still available. What are the parts that wear out on pistols? I am a Glock guy so I don't worry much about this! Know your weapon and what is likely to happen with is. Now what about your carbine? Bolts and bolt parts are the most common source of issues with an AR-15. Better have some spare parts on hand. I have seen gas tubes get bent. Again, better have some spares. The good news is that upper and lower receivers are pretty robust - but it never hurts to have extras for a rainy day.
Many new assault weapon bans list pistols with threaded barrels. If you are the legal owner of a suppressor or some other accessory that threads onto the end of a pistol barrel, it would be best to own that threaded barrel before the election (that way, when the inevitable ban comes, your pistol is considered "pre-ban" and grandfathered in).
The only other thing I want to mention here are trigger groups. I do not think these rapid fire, binary, or other triggers are all that necessary. I think they should be legal, but I never personally had much use for them. The issue with the proposed laws regarding trigger components is that they could technically be applied to any trigger group with a pull weight that is less than the stock weight - because reducing the pull weight could be said to "increase the rate of fire of the weapon." I am not going to opine on whether the law will actually be applied in such a manner as to ban competition triggers, but it is a part of many proposed regulations that I believe is worthy of mention.
Do we need to stockpile guns themselves?: The truth is that you probably do not need to stockpile actual firearms. I was alive during the ten years of tyranny. Handguns were still widely available. The only thing that changed was people trading in their now-worthless 9mm pistols for 45 caliber pistols. There was even a bill proposed at one point to "close the 45 caliber loophole" - although it never went anywhere. I speculate that a new ban will bring a return not necessarily to the 45 ACP. Instead, I predict the 10mm seeing a further resurgence in popularity as it is ballistically superior to the 45. We will also see a trend toward more compact firearms with intergrated compensators (like some variants of the 365 have alread) to tame the recoil of the 10mm. If you do not already have an AR-15, and preferably an AR-10, the best time to buy one is yesterday and the second best time to buy one is today. If you are unable to afford one of high quality, you will at the very least want to buy a lower receiver so that you can full assemble one at a later date.
A new and more permanent assault weapon and magazine ban will almost certainly yield the death of the 5.56mm. Expect to see radical design changes in semi-automatic rifles with chamberings in larger "battle rifle" rounds like the 308 Winchester and 30-06 Springfield. We may even see chamberings in newer rounds like the 6.8x51mm. However, what I really expect will take off will be precision bolt action rifles because these "military grade sniper rifles" are almost certain to be the target of bans after the left is successful against assault weapons. Remember: the language changed from "assault weapons" to "weapons of war" for a reason. That is because nearly ALL firearms have their origins in a miltary design and the left wants to ban all firearms. We can only hope that the assault weapon ban that is almost certain to come after the 2024 election will yield the creation of a new nation where real Americans can rest easy every night knowing that their right to bear arms is safe.
The truth about ammunition shortages in the 21st century is that they have been cyclical and have corresponded with federal elections. The first was in 2008 following the election of Barack Obama. I remember there being a major shortage of guns and ammunition for nine months following President Obama's election because people believed there would be a near immediate ban on firearms and ammunition. It turns out that Barack Obama was a political pragmatist: he remembered how the NRA was instrumental in the defeat of Al Gore in the 2000 election and wanted to be a two-term President. He was careful with his rhetoric on the gun issue and the shortages fizzled out rather quickly. Then came 2012, when Obama won re-election handily against Mitt Romney, and things were pretty quiet after the election. Then Sandy Hook happened. Magpul AR-15 magazines shot up to $99.00 each overnight. 9mm ammo shot up to $1.00 per round. Polymer AR-15 lowers went for $500.00 each. Obama promised a new assault weapons ban.
Of course, his words went nowhere. Republicans still controlled the House. They knew that NRA members have exceptionally long memories and that any treason would result in a primary challenge. The post-Sandy Hook gun bans went nowhere despite the best efforts of Barack Obama and, most notably, Dianne Feinstein (may she forever burn in Hell). It was dead by May of 2013. But the ammunition and magazine shortage lasted another year for a total of around 18 months before there was a return to normalcy. With Trump's victory in the 2016 election there was no shortage of guns, ammunition, or magazines. Then came the double-whammy of the Bolognavirus pandemic and the 2020 election (which everyone knew Joe Biden was almost certain to win). The shortage really began in a noticeable manner in the Spring of 2020. To be fair the so-called "pandemic" lasted into 2021, but it was not until 2023 that we started seeing ammunition return to store shelves. Reloading components still remain in short supply (most notably, primers).
Joe Biden is almost guaranteed re-election in 2024 and there is more than a 90% chance that Democrats will win the trifecta of the House, Senate, and Presidency. This election could mean an end to the Second Amendment as we know it and could even lead to a second war between the states regardless of who wins. When Biden is declared the winner on November 5, there will almost certainly be a run on guns, ammunition, and reloading components the following day. Prices will skyrocket. But you don't need to be caught unprepared. Here is what I recommend for those who wish to be able to "sit out" the upcoming shortage and avoid paying premiums to the hoarders and gougers:
Stockpile Ammunition: In addition to your stockpile of SHTF ammunition, you should have enough ammunition for all of the hunting and training that you will want to do for the next three years. If the Second Amendment survives the 2024 election, it is likely that the post-election ammunition shortage will not last nearly as long as the Bolognavirus shortage (probably closer to 18 months than three years). The good new is that ammunition doesn't have an expiration date. I typically take at least one pistol (100 rounds), one carbine (150 rounds), and one precision rifle (80) rounds class every month. That means I need 3,600 rounds of 9mm, 5,400 rounds between 5.56mm, 300 BLK, and 7.62x39, and 2,880 rounds between 6.5 Grendel, 308 Winchester, and 300 Winchester Magnum. I hunt lots of ducks every year so I probably need a minimum of nine cases of 12 gauge steel shot, plus enough lead shot to get some practice in. I am also a deer hunter so, for the rifle I will be hunting with (usually 6.5 Grendel or 308 Winchester), I will want a minimum of six 20rd boxes of high quality hunting ammunition (that gives me the flexibility to kill hogs as well). I only kill about one turkey a year so I figure one box of turkey shells per season to account for pattern confirmation and any misses. For most people, that's a heck of a lot of ammo to have in addition to your SHTF stockpile. It's a considerable investment, but far better than the alternative of not training, not hunting, and not being prepared.
Stockpile Standard Capacity Magazines: For the purpose of this article, a standard capacity magazine is any magazine capable of holding more than ten rounds of ammunition. The problem is that magazines for certain platforms can be very expensive. This makes it important to focus your priorities. My personal recommendation is to stockpile the least common and most expensive magazines first. For example, if you own a Glock 17 or a Glock 19, there is no shortage of magazines available at this point. Pre-ban high capacity magazines may still be available for some time after a ban. This will not necessarily be true for those shooting a Sig P365, a 2011 series pistol, or other weapon with a proprietary magazine. Stock up on those magazines first because, after a ban, they will be in the shortest supply. Since the handgun is the primary weapon system for a civilian, I recommend startingw with handgun magazines and purchasing a minimum of ten standard capacity magazines for every firearm you own. Lets say I owned three handguns: a 2011, a Sig P365, and a Glock 17. The 2011 is a competition weapon and the P365 is a carry gun. I would start my stockpiling for my P365 because it is my primary weapon system. I would then stockpile for the 2011 because those are rarer magazines. After that, I would make sure I am well stocked for my Glock 17 if I am not already. For those wondering, the Magpul magazines for these weapons work just fine but do not drop as freely as factory magazines. So, I use magpul magazines for training and carry factory Glock magazines.
If your lineup of weapons also includes a tactical carbine - and it should - this is your next priority. Since the AR-15 is such a common target of bans, many people wonder why I don't prioritize AR or AK magazines over pistol magazines. The reason is simple: I remember the 10 years of tyranny from 1994 to 2004. Throughout the first ban, it was relatively easy to obtain 20 and 30 round pre-ban AR-15 magazines. I still have my pre-1994 Israeli Orlite 30 round magazines that I purchased during the 10 years of tyranny. They still work and I still train with them. I also have a good quantity of USGI magazines from that period - far less common these days given the popularity of Magpul - but still great magazines. In short, the market is so flooded with AR-15 magazines that as long as you have two or three for now there is no stockpiling emergency (yet). If you run a PCC like a FN PS90, CZ Scorpion, or other platform that takes proprietary magazines, make sure that you have plenty. For a PCC, I recommend the same number as I do for pistol (minimum of 10). For the AR and AK platforms, magazines are cheap and in good supply. I do not encourage wasting your money on drums or anything more than 30 rounds because of the extra length and weight. Have twenty magazines for your AR or AK. If you own an AR in an oddball caliber like 7.62x39, 6.5 Grendel, 6mm ARC, etc - those are definately magazines you will want to have an abundance of now while you still can (I will say I use 6.5 as a DMR or hunting rifle so I am fine with a 10 round magazine for that). On the same note, remember that AR-10 weapons are far less common than AR-15s. You will absolutely want as many 20 or 30 round magazines for your AR-10 as you can afford as they will be in far shorter supply than AR and AK magazines. In fact, I would buy those before I bought PCC or tactical carbine magazines. A semi-automatic rifle capable of delivering long range fire is a huge force multiplier.
Your lowest priority is your shotgun. Obviously, if you have a magazine fed semi-automatic shotgun, you will want to have plenty of magazines. If your shotgun has a tubular magazine, you will want to have the extension tube. However, I say that this is a lower priority because magazine limits have never been applicable to pump action shotguns. In my experience, a pump action can be operated almost as fast as an autoloader when it comes to shotguns so there is less drawback to being limited in that regard. The people who really need to be sure they have their extended magazine tube are snow goose hunters.
Stockpile Select Gun Parts: This is your second lowest priority, but it is still a priority. The good news here is that it takes a lot of time for modern firearm parts to wear down. The first thing you want to do is check barrels on your precision rifles, especially if your precision rifle is an AR-15 or AR-10 platform. How many rounds do you have down the tube? Will it need to be replaced if you shoot it in the next year with the same frequency you otherwise would? If so, better to replace that barrel now and confirm your DOPE while ammunition is still available. What are the parts that wear out on pistols? I am a Glock guy so I don't worry much about this! Know your weapon and what is likely to happen with is. Now what about your carbine? Bolts and bolt parts are the most common source of issues with an AR-15. Better have some spare parts on hand. I have seen gas tubes get bent. Again, better have some spares. The good news is that upper and lower receivers are pretty robust - but it never hurts to have extras for a rainy day.
Many new assault weapon bans list pistols with threaded barrels. If you are the legal owner of a suppressor or some other accessory that threads onto the end of a pistol barrel, it would be best to own that threaded barrel before the election (that way, when the inevitable ban comes, your pistol is considered "pre-ban" and grandfathered in).
The only other thing I want to mention here are trigger groups. I do not think these rapid fire, binary, or other triggers are all that necessary. I think they should be legal, but I never personally had much use for them. The issue with the proposed laws regarding trigger components is that they could technically be applied to any trigger group with a pull weight that is less than the stock weight - because reducing the pull weight could be said to "increase the rate of fire of the weapon." I am not going to opine on whether the law will actually be applied in such a manner as to ban competition triggers, but it is a part of many proposed regulations that I believe is worthy of mention.
Do we need to stockpile guns themselves?: The truth is that you probably do not need to stockpile actual firearms. I was alive during the ten years of tyranny. Handguns were still widely available. The only thing that changed was people trading in their now-worthless 9mm pistols for 45 caliber pistols. There was even a bill proposed at one point to "close the 45 caliber loophole" - although it never went anywhere. I speculate that a new ban will bring a return not necessarily to the 45 ACP. Instead, I predict the 10mm seeing a further resurgence in popularity as it is ballistically superior to the 45. We will also see a trend toward more compact firearms with intergrated compensators (like some variants of the 365 have alread) to tame the recoil of the 10mm. If you do not already have an AR-15, and preferably an AR-10, the best time to buy one is yesterday and the second best time to buy one is today. If you are unable to afford one of high quality, you will at the very least want to buy a lower receiver so that you can full assemble one at a later date.
A new and more permanent assault weapon and magazine ban will almost certainly yield the death of the 5.56mm. Expect to see radical design changes in semi-automatic rifles with chamberings in larger "battle rifle" rounds like the 308 Winchester and 30-06 Springfield. We may even see chamberings in newer rounds like the 6.8x51mm. However, what I really expect will take off will be precision bolt action rifles because these "military grade sniper rifles" are almost certain to be the target of bans after the left is successful against assault weapons. Remember: the language changed from "assault weapons" to "weapons of war" for a reason. That is because nearly ALL firearms have their origins in a miltary design and the left wants to ban all firearms. We can only hope that the assault weapon ban that is almost certain to come after the 2024 election will yield the creation of a new nation where real Americans can rest easy every night knowing that their right to bear arms is safe.
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